With a performance of 45.86% in 2025 and almost 6% in 2026 at the end of April, the DNCA Invest Stratgic Ressources fund (part I) is shining and continues to achieve significant positive inflows. With precious metals in the background, the fund is also investing in industrial metals, with a bet on aluminum in early spring.
Precious metals, industrial metals and energy transition metals make up the portfolio of a fund like no other, offering diversification and decorrelation from the equity/bond world, with tangible, liquid assets. Commodities are essential to tomorrow’s world, but also to a balanced portfolio.
And recent geopolitical events are adding further fuel to the fire, with the transition and growing need for energy sovereignty exacerbated by events in the Strait of Hormuz, record indebtedness among economic players and the steady return of inflation. Raw materials have become an even more strategic asset than in the past.
But in this very special field of industrial and precious metals, you need to be reactive and jump on the right horse at the right time.
Has gold lost its compass?
Indeed, some may have lost their compass with gold’s latest moves. Euphoric over the last two years, piling up record after record, the yellow metal has fallen back into line in recent months despite geopolitical tensions at their height.
According to Alexandre Carrier, manager of the DNCA Invest Strategic Ressources fund, there is a temporary explanation for this weakness: “Gold often falls in the first part of a crisis. In an ailing financial market, some players need liquidity and opt to sell gold. Besides, isn’t gold acquired precisely to get through difficult times better?”
There are many explanations for this. Before the crisis hit, smelling gunpowder, the Iranian population accumulated precautionary purchases of gold. This proved to be a wise decision. Iran’s local currency, the Rial, collapsed by 60% in the first 12 days of the conflict. Gold has retained its value and fulfilled its role.”
Then Russia, finding it difficult to finance its war, had to sell off its stock of gold, while Turkey, in order to defend its currency, also began to unload gold.
After a crisis, according to the manager, gold tends to stabilize before central banks take action. “At present, our central scenario is based on maintaining current interest rates. But the persistence of a persistently high oil price is likely to alter our analysis, along with inflation.”
For gold, positioning must be much more refined, explains the DNCA Finance specialist: “We sold a little at the end of the year, taking advantage of the latest fever pitch. After the correction of recent weeks, the market has become healthier and less speculative than in December. We bought back gold in March.”
But it’s important to keep a long-term view: “Permanent exposure to gold is still a good idea. Approximately 10 to 12% of our fund is invested in the yellow metal, a weighting slightly above its average. However, our overall position in precious metals (silver, platinum, palladium) is virtually in line (39% at 04/23 vs. 40%), with a reduction in the weight of silver, which has become too speculative in recent months”
However, there is no shortage of arguments for gold to continue rising. The conflict in the Middle East will have an impact on global indebtedness. In the coming quarters, the USA will have to roll over its debt (which has ballooned with the current conflict), at higher rates, with the consequence that interest charges have become the largest item in the budget, ahead of defense. Debt is a useful economic tool when growth is strong. Alas, that’s not how things are today.
And in many countries, government debt has exceeded 100% of GDP. We’ve entered a vicious circle. And the population of these countries is aging… with inherent risks. US Treasurys, but also European government bonds, are becoming less and less attractive. Gold, on the other hand, has no debt and its available volume is virtually constant.
Aluminium: a short-term bet
In its own way, aluminium is becoming increasingly precious. At the end of April, the DNCA Invest Strategic Ressources fund is most heavily weighted in metals. “We were underweight in 2025 before gradually increasing our exposure at the end of 2026, with nickel,” explains Alexandre Carrier, manager of the DNCA Invest Strategic Ressources fund.
Energy-intensive aluminum production in Europe has been crippled for the first time by the energy shock and the war in Ukraine in 2021-2022. Recent events have not been conducive to a resumption of production, while demand is likely to increase.
At present, a large part of production comes from China, 45 million tonnes out of 75 worldwide. Yet China has just imposed a production ceiling, precisely at the level of these 45 million tonnes, because aluminium requires a lot of energy to produce. And in the face of growing energy needs, China has had to make a choice: it can’t produce more aluminum by capping production. The Middle East accounts for 15% of the world’s exports of this strategic metal, this time produced using cheap energy from nearby underground sources.
But recently, Iranian attacks on foundries in Bahrain and the Emirates have put a damper on production. With immediate effect on markets that react to the slightest event. Aluminum prices soared, with the price in full meltdown reaching $3,500 a tonne, a rise of 10% in just a few days. Over the last 12 months, the price has risen by 50%. Long overshadowed by copper, aluminum is becoming a key, strategic metal in a growing shortage. Stocks are at record lows, while China will not be playing the white knight with its regulatory production ceiling.
The need for aluminum is likely to be sustained, as it is used in the production of solar panels, wind turbines and electric cars, which are particularly demanding. To add a little more pressure, the latest rise in oil prices is likely to provide a further boost for renewable energies, with countries becoming even more sensitive to energy sovereignty (as a result of higher oil prices, sales of electric cars have risen by 10%). With a weighting of over13%, aluminium is the fund’s highest weighting.
Copper increasingly in demand
Copper has almost doubled in one year, which is another great conviction in the fund. “It weighed up to 17% of the fund, but we’re back down to around 12%,” adds Alexandre Carrer. Copper is present in a “multitude of sectors”, not only in the traditional construction industry, but also in renewable energies, batteries, data centers with their numerous cables that need to be cooled, defense (missiles, frigates, etc.) and robotics.
With this high demand, there is a real risk of a deficit by 2030. Mining companies have invested very little. It can take 15 years from discovery to production (permits, infrastructure, financing, personnel, etc.). “It’s a bit like the oil of the ’70s. There’s a lack of investment,” stresses the DNCA Finance manager.
The fund is currently invested in exactly 10 metals, with aluminum overweight in the short term and copper overweight in the medium term.
With exposure to pewter, a more discreet metal that is not usually found in backgrounds. Used for soldering, also a kind of glue for semiconductors. Today, 50% of tin demand is for technology. The market is small and narrow, and large conglomerates invest little….
Central banks drive gold
Finally, there’s another argument in favor of gold metal: central banks’ growing preference for the yellow metal.
Gold’s share of central bank reserves has tripled to 30% today compared with the 1990s, as monetary policymakers seek to protect themselves against geopolitical turbulence, with a growing distrust of the US dollar. The US dollar’s percentage share of foreign central bank reserves has fallen to 40%, from over 60% previously.
Central banks seem to be reversing the trend seen in the 1990s, when they reduced their exposure to gold in favor of the US dollar,
But it should be borne in mind that 80% of the increase in gold’s share of central bank reserves is due to price appreciation rather than new purchases. Last year, gold recorded its biggest annual rise since 1979 – ironically, the year of the Iranian revolution – and is now up over 40% in the last 12 months.
However, central bank purchases continue to account for a significant proportion of the increase in reserves, and contribute to the rise in the yellow metal.
Gold has long been considered a safe haven for investors seeking security in times of global conflict.
last but not least, one advantage of the fund is that it is exposed indirectly to copper, tin, gold, etc. and not to equities. Finally, the fund has grown from 150 million in assets under management to… 450 million.
